Saturday, November 30, 2013

Holiday chats. Kasich 2016 and other absurdities.

                    One decent thing about the Holiday Season is reconnecting with people you haven't seen for awhile.

I had a quick chat with a GOP political guy I know. He some how defied odds and came out of College as a "conservative". I enjoy our little meetings and getting under his skin. This is the guy who told me that Mitt was going to take Ohio by 5 points and Sherrod Brown would be a one term Senator. He also considers Drudge as a legitimate news source.

Now, it's the old Mitt wasn't conservative enough. That argument always makes me smile. As if a Rick Perry or Michelle Bachman could have drawn enough votes to overcome the progressive statement made by a diverse cross section of real Americans in 2012.

He also now says Josh Mandel was a flawed candidate who alienated voters by running for Senate from the moment he took office as State Treasurer. In early 2012, I was told that would not be an issue. The fact Mandel also was hammered in the debate by Senator Brown who had massive support from The Fraternal Order Of Police,(Which usually backs GOP)helped show the disdain Mandel was held in. Josh's support of the Union Busting attempt in 2011 didn't endear him to voters either. Of course my friend and I disagree over thee impact of Issue 2/SB5. He feels it's not an issue. They simply needed a better candidate.

Finding a not Tea Party enthralled Candidate is going to be a problem for the GOP in Ohio for the foreseeable future.The Moderates who held Ohio's top offices from the 1990's into the 2000's are gone. They are left with the New Ohio Republican. The one's who redefined pregnancy and enacted awful abortion regulations with glee. Or opposed Medicare expansion to the point of suing to stop it now that the Governor did an end run to do it.The kind of Ohio Republican that cuts the income tax for the wealthy and increases the sales tax as they also expand it. The kind of Republican that pushes people of of SNAP and toys with Right to Work legislation and ballot measures. Because 2011 was a fluke.

The candidate pool here in Ohio has been poisoned by the runaway theocratic, reactionary national GOP mindset. And that has worked out so well for them. The Democratic Candidates for State Office are already performing better than expected a year out from the election. Well enough to engender a ray of hope.

Our conversation turned to 2016 where he informed me that the Governor of Ohio, John Kasich, would be our next President. Had I not been drinking some pricey Scotch I'd have done a spit take.

He is convinced  that Kasich's down home, unpretentious style would send Hillary or any other Dem down in flames. He actually believes that A) Kasich could survive the Primary with the current far right mindset of primary voters and B) John wouldn't lose his temper and self destruct in front of the national media. That is a real possibility. Check YouTube for his rant about getting a ticket on State Route 315. He repeatedly called the officer an idiot. This little mini-meltdown happened as the fight over crushing the Public Sector Unions was heating up    

The very fact he's talking Kasich 2016 means the worst kept secret in Ohio is even less of a secret. John has no prayer of beating out the Tea Party favorites like Cruz, Paul and to a lesser extent Rubio and Bush. He has expanded Medicaid which is a hot button, conservative credential issue. On the plus side, he's anti-union and signed reprehensible abortion regulations into law. Kasich recently started a push for a Federal Balanced Budget Amendment. He's trying to be a northern Rick Perry at times.

Now one advantage he does have is his former employer Fox News. On every recent appearance they are tossing him, even for them, softballs. Kasich had his own Fox show and subbed for Hannity and Billo. This is no where near enough of a help for Kasich to get the Nomination. The field lining up is on the whole is farther right than 2012 and not quite as sane.

There is also the question of Kasich being reelected. The Public and Private Unions want his head. The Police unions are likely to sharpen the ax. Ed Fitzgerald is in better shape than most expected of a Dem challenger this far out. There is no primary opponent so he'll be coming into the battle unwounded. Kasich has a problem in polls with single women. I wonder why?

The best way to derail a White House bid for John is to make him a one and done Governor. Even so he could still run. After all Santorum had his ass handed to him as he lost his Senate seat and ran hard and close in'12.

Kasich has an arrogance that bleeds through his nice guy persona. He has a temper. His handlers have problems keeping him on script. Anytime he opens his mouth they cringe in fear of what may come out. Kasich has almost no chance of getting the 2016 nomination. His biggest enemy is himself. The likely Democratic Nominee, Hillary Clinton would eviscerate him on the Campaign trail and in debates. It would also split the Tea party/Republican vote here. Once Kasich goes hard right he has problems even recognizing where the center is.

Well, this election season is looking interesting. We, the voters have a chance to right the ship of state. Or at least throw a monkey wrench in John's plans for higher office. It's time to see if we can stop Ohio being a laughingstock. It's time to at least take our best shot at restoring sanity here. Let's roll.

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